nber business cycle dating group-meets CAMBRIDGE, July 27 -- The Committee on Business Cycle Dating of the NBER met on July 26 to reviews the evidence about the current state of the U.S. economy. The Committee is responsible for maintaining the NBER's chronology of U.S. business cycles, which is widely used among economic and business analysts.
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The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met by conference call on Friday, November The committee maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates (months and quarters) of U.S. recessions. The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in December
A: The committee looked at both the NBER's past descriptions of business cycle dating and its past choices of dates. In its descriptions, the NBER has consistently placed more emphasis on output than on employment.
In September , the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee decided that the recession that began in December of had ended in July of The NBER does not use a popular definition of recession—two quarters of falling GDP—but looks at a variety of monthly statistics to date business cycles. Read the paragraph shown.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions.
Does the Committee follow the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee in its deliberations? While the CEPR Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee has been conceived to operate in a manner similar to the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, its deliberations and timing of announcements are independent. The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee has determined that a peak in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in March A peak marks the end of an expansion and the beginning of a recession.
Business Cycle Dating Committee of the Nation Bureau of Economic Research defines recession as a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail trade. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the period. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period.
Still, the NBER's declaration should be of only limited comfort because it isn't a forecast. "The dating committee does not forecast recessions -- they date them a year later when the dust settles," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which said last month that a recession was no longer avoidable. US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions ¹ pdf version Contractions (recessions) start at the peak of a business cycle and end at the trough. Please also see: Latest announcement from the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee, dated 9/20/